Forkast Research Report

Context

Prediction markets saw massive adoption and growth throughout 2024 as platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi saw nearly 10 billion in trading volume.The esports market is projected to reach a record $5.1 billion by 2026, with esports betting expected to account for $3 billion, or 60% of the total market. This growth positions esports betting as the largest and most dynamic segment of the gaming industry.

Community Gaming (CG) is poised to capitalize on these bullish trends, tapping into a global base of 261 million competitive gaming enthusiasts who are fans that consume streaming and esports content monthly.

Through its all-in-one competition platform, CG provides blockchain-based payment technology for communities and game developers, enabling seamless creation, facilitation, and participation in esports tournaments.

Over the past two years, Community Gaming has reached significant milestones, with the creation of over 750,000 wallets, and by facilitating on-chain payments for more than 50,000 tournament matches each month.

These tournaments, engaging over 120,000 gamers, have included some of the most popular Web2 games, such as Clash of Clans and Mobile Legends.

Building on these solid foundations, CG is now expanding into prediction markets through Forkast.

Built on the Ronin blockchain, Forkast aims at bringing prediction markets to the Web2 esports community, offering players and fans novel and exciting ways to engage with tournaments, events, and gaming trends.

In this context Forkast’s prediction market is positioning to leverage all the strengths of blockchain technology, unlocking new opportunities for both the Web2 and Web3 gaming ecosystems.

Project Overview

Forkast is a prediction market platform focused on gaming and internet culture, enabling users to engage with markets based on trending topics such as gaming, memes, streamers, breaking news, and Web3 assets.

Forkast is powered by Community Gaming, a leading competitive gaming ecosystem that hosted 50k+ tournament matches each month with 100k+ monthly active users (MAU).

Together, Forkast and Community Gaming bring prediction markets to esports and competitive gaming, seamlessly bridging Web2 and Web3 ecosystems to offer players and fans an interactive way to engage with gaming trends, events, and outcomes.

Traction

Key Performance Metrics:

• 120k gamers in the past 24 months.
• 750k wallets.
• 1k Tournaments hosted on Ronin alone and 12k tournaments across other chains, all gasless.
  • Case Study (*)
• 50k Tournament Matches monthly.
• 100k monthly active Questing users.
  • Number of users who have earned at least $10 on our platform: 23,852
  • Number of users who have earned at least $100 on our platform: 5,119
  • Number of users who played in at least one tournament ever: 341,132
  • Number of users who completed at least one quest ever: 523,077
• 6M on-chain transactions processed since July.
• $4M in Tournament rewards(*)

Top 3 Games on CG:

• Mobile Legends: Bang Bang
• Free Fire
• Clash of Clans

Top 3 Chains for Payments:

• Base
• Polygon
• Ronin

Top Countries (by tournament users):

• 🇮🇩 Indonesia
• 🇮🇳 India
• 🇵🇪 Peru
• 🇦🇷 Argentina
• 🇧🇷 Brazil
• 🇵🇭 Philippine

Partners:

• Coinbase – Smart Wallet Integration & TFT Tournaments.
• Mobile Legends – Official Esports Platform Partner.
• Worldcoin – LatAm Verification Partnership.
• Parallel – Tournament Livestream.
• Team Liquid – USDC Tournaments.
• PUBG Mobile – LatAm PUBG Mobile Tournaments.
• Ronin (Ecosystem & KOL Partnership) – Exact name unclear from the image.
• Valorant – Official Offseason LatAm Tournament.

Technical Architecture

Forkast is a prediction market platform focused on harnessing collective intelligence to forecast outcomes, primarily in web2 and web3 gaming.

Its core features include order book-based trading of prediction market shares tied to binary outcomes.

Markets are grouped into events, allowing users to trade on various facets of a shared theme, such as gaming tournaments or blockchain milestones.

1. The Orderbook & Matching Engine

Forkast.gg employs a Hybrid-Decentralized model for its order book, where order matching is conducted off-chain for optimal speed and settlement occurs on-chain to ensure full transparency and security. This approach enables Forkast to offer a fast, responsive experience without sacrificing the security and trustless nature of blockchain technology.

Order Matching Rules

Within the Orderbook, the orders are matched through a mechanism designed for efficiency and fairness:

1. Price Priority: Higher bid prices are matched with lower ask prices first.
2. Time Priority: If multiple orders have the same price, earlier orders are prioritized.
3. Refund Mechanism: Buyers are refunded the price difference if their bid exceeds the matched ask price.

Matching rules include:

• Normal Matching: Matches buy and sell orders directly.
• Mint Matching: Matches buyers of "Yes" and "No" outcomes when their combined prices equal 1, minting Yes-No tokens.
• Merge Matching: Matches sellers of "Yes" and "No" outcomes when their combined prices equal 1, merging tokens for payout.

Non-Custodial Settlement: Forkast’s onchain settlement process is entirely non-custodial, meaning users retain control of their funds throughout the transaction lifecycle. All trades and outcomes are settled through secure smart contracts, ensuring that rewards are distributed directly to users.

2. Prediction Markets & Price-Suggestion

Prediction markets on Forkast enable participants to trade shares based on the likelihood of future events. Share prices reflect the market's consensus probability of an outcome.

Key Components:

• Market Question: The event or scenario being predicted.
• Outcomes: Possible results, typically "Yes" or "No."
• Resolution Source: Data oracles or mechanisms that determine the market's outcome.
• Resolver Address: The on-chain address responsible for verifying and reporting the result.

Price-Suggesting Framework

Forkast.gg's price-suggesting system dynamically evaluates market conditions to recommend competitive and informed prices for traders, ensuring alignment with real-time market liquidity and trends.

For Buyers:

• Market Orders: Suggest the lowest ask price currently available.
• Limit Orders: Suggest either the lowest ask price or the highest opposing bid price, depending on market dynamics.

For Sellers:

• Market Orders: Suggest the highest bid price currently available.
• Limit Orders: Suggest either the highest bid price or the lowest opposing ask price, depending on market conditions.

3. Event Aggregation

Forkast groups related markets under a single event for broader contextual analysis and trading. For example:

• Event: "Which gaming blockchain will reach 500k active users next?"
• Markets: Multiple questions, such as "Will Pixels reach 500k users?" with tradable "Yes" and "No" outcomes.

This structure allows users to hedge or diversify their positions across related markets within a single event.

4. Proxy Wallets

To improve user-experience, Forkast utilizes smart contract wallets called Proxy Wallets which simplify multi-step processes, while ensuring users maintain full control over their assets.

Proxy Wallets are deployed to the Ronin blockchain as a 1-of-1 multisig, fully controlled by users’ linked wallet (User’s EOA) that submit transactions via a relayer which covers the gas fees, eliminating the need to approve each market or pay gas directly.

Key benefits include:

• Atomic Transactions: Multi-step transactions, like splitting collateral into binary conditional tokens, merging tokens back into collateral, and redeeming payouts, are executed in a single atomic operation, reducing errors and improving efficiency.
• Gas-Free Transactions: By utilizing relayers on the gas station network, Proxy Wallets allow users to complete transactions without needing to directly pay for gas fees.
• Secure Asset Storage: All user positions and funds are stored securely within the Proxy Wallet, ensuring safety while providing full control to the owner wallet.

5. Conditional Tokens Framework (CFT)

Forkast implements the Conditional Tokens Framework (CTF), built on Gnosis's architecture, to tokenize prediction market outcomes.

Using the ERC1155 standard, CTF represents binary outcome tokens (e.g., "YES" and "NO") backed by collateral assets.

This smart contract system facilitates essential operations, including the creation, splitting, merging, and redemption of tokens, ensuring transparent and trustless management of collateral and market resolutions.

Key Features:

• Outcome Tokenization: Market outcomes are tokenized as distinct ERC1155 assets tied to specific conditions and backed by collateral.
• Dynamic Operations:
  • Prepare Conditions: Initialize market-specific conditions for outcome token creation.
  • Split Positions: Convert collateral into binary outcome tokens for trading.
  • Merge Positions: Recombine binary tokens into their original collateral.
  • Redeem Payouts: Exchange winning tokens for collateral post-market resolution.
• Efficient Token Management: Provides seamless handling of tokens and collateral, enabling traders to adapt their positions dynamically based on market conditions.

6. AI Trading Assistants

Forkast has developed Byte Trading Buddy AI (Q1 Launch), an assistant that will offer real-time customer support, manage KYC processes, and integrate with the ticketing systems, including HubSpot and Discord.

In addition, Forkast is building an autonomous community of AI-driven Twitter agents, combining custom and existing frameworks. These AI-powered agents will feature distinct personalities—such as esports enthusiasts and Web3 traders—engaging with the broader community through data-driven discussions around popular prediction markets.

AI-Powered Enhancements to the Forkast Experience

In Q2 2025, Forkast will launch a suite of AI-driven features designed to enhance user engagement and trading performance:

• Public Trading SDKs – A suite of AI-powered SDKs will be available, enabling experienced traders to develop custom trading strategies with ease.
• AI Trading Assistants for CGX Stakers – Stakers will gain access to AI-driven research assistants capable of:
  • Analyzing individual holdings and trading interests.
  • Delivering real-time insights and notifications on market trends.
  • Providing contextualized intelligence to support informed decision-making.
• Autonomous Trading Agents – CGX stakers will be able to configure and deploy AI-powered trading agents that:
  • Tailor strategies based on specific market niches, data sources, and user preferences.
  • Automate trading actions according to predefined strategies, optimizing performance and efficiency.

7. User Incentive Programs

Forkast offers several incentive programs to reward user participation:

1. Liquidity Rewards: Earned by providing market liquidity through resting limit orders.
2. Quest Rewards: Unlock rewards by meeting specific trading milestones or winning trades.
3. Leaderboard Rewards: Recognizes top-performing users based on trading volume, ROI, and PnL.

Token Utility & Tokenomics

The $CGX Token

Both CG and Forkast.gg are powered by the $CGX token, an ERC-20 token representing both governance and utility functions within the CG ecosystem.

Staking Benefits:

Staking unlocks several benefits, including:

• Unlocking Monthly Loot Boxes
• Platform Credit used across Predictions Market and CG+
• Vote On & Create New Prediction Markets
• Access to Decentralized Leagues Nodes in the future
• Participation in future PVP ecosystem Governance.

Loot Boxes:

Players who stake CGX tokens will earn Loot Boxes each month. Loot Boxes may contain:

• Fungible Tokens (USDC, CGX)
• Platform Credit (CG+ and Prediction Market)
• Exclusive assets from partnered games

Faucets:

These ensure a consistent flow of CGX tokens, stimulating economic activity and engagement. Key faucets include:

• Tournament Prize Pools
• Prediction Rewards
• Loot Box Rewards
• Liquidity Incentives

Sinks & Protocol Revenue:

The CG ecosystem sinks tokens and generates revenue through:

• CG+ Subscription Payments
• Platform Fees (Prediction & Tournaments)
• Staking to Access Loot Boxes
• Staking to Access Platform Governance Rights

Trading Fees:

• This includes prediction market trade commissions and fees on tournament prize pools are acuqired by the token. 1% fee on Selling positions and Winning Positions

The CGX ecosystem fosters value-sharing among players, traders, tournament organizers, and stakers. Through use of the CGX token, the system balances player rewards and protocol revenue, ensuring sustainability and longevity while providing numerous opportunities for player progression and rewards.

Tokenomics

Community Total: 57%:

• 16% Staking Rewards
• 12% Communty Airdrops
• 5% Tournaments/Leagues Prize Pools
• 8% Future Rewards
• 16% Ecosystem Treasury

CG Total: 43%:

• 31% Investors & Early Supporters
• 9% Team
• 3% Advisors

Initial circulating supply: 18%

Seed Round:

• Date: July 2021
• Raised: $2.3M
• Valuation: $22.6M Token FDV
• Vesting: 12-month cliff with 20% of tokens released at the 12-month anniversary, followed by monthly distribution of the remaining 80% over the subsequent 12 months, totaling 2 years.

Series A Round:

• Date: Feb 2022
• Raised: $16M
• Valuation: $132M Token FDV
• Vesting: 12-month cliff with 20% of tokens released at the 12-month anniversary, followed by monthly distribution of the remaining 80% over the subsequent 12 months, totaling 2 years.

IDO Round:

• Date: February 2025
• Raise: $350k
• Valuation: $40M Token FDV.
• Vesting: 50% vesting on day 45 + 50% linearly vested over 45 days.

Existing Investors:

Binance Labs, CoinFund, ConsenSys, Griffin Gaming Partners, Multicoin Capital, BITKRAFT, Play Ventures, Gam3 Girl Ventures, Neoclassic Capital, HASHED, Polygon, and Abu Dhabi's Emirates Consortium.

Roadmap

Competitive Landscape

• Polymarket -The largest web3 prediction market by volume. Achieved over $9 billion in volume in 2024, largely due to the popularity of the U.S. election. 46% of bets on Polymarket are under $50 and 18% are under $10, showing that there is demand for small-ticket prediction bets.
• PredictIt - Prior to Polymarket’s recent success. PredictIt was the largest web2 prediction market for politics.
• Kalshi - Kalshi has built a fully compliant and legal prediction market using the CFTC framework. While its primary focus is on economic markets, you can trade on the Oscars Best Picture winner, the number of tornadoes in a given month, and how much Ozempic prescriptions will increase over the next quarter of the year.

• FACEIT - Acquired for $1.5 billion by the Saudi’s Savvy Group. Focused primarily on one game, Counter-Strike. They have built good anticheat and server software for Counter-Strike but they are weak with the other most popular games globally.
• Matcherino - Focused on web2 crowdfunding for tournaments. Web2 questing system built into their tournament software. Aside from a partnership with Supercell, they focus mostly on fighting games and less on standard esports titles. No web3 payments.
• Blumint – Web3 tournament platform with ability to lend NFTs. Poor UX and lacking a strong userbase or game focus. Doesn’t support multiple blockchains or have automated stablecoin payments.

Battlefy – Sizable userbase as they’ve been around for almost 10 years. They are a web2 tournament platform focused mostly on PC games. They do not support emerging markets like Forkast.gg does and have no support for web3 games or web3 payments.

Team

Core Team

• Total Members: 25 full-time team members and 5 part-time.
  • Latin America (5 members):
    • Events: 2
    • Marketing: 1
    • Business Development: 1
    • Community: 1
  • Europe (10 members):
    • Tech: 6
    • CTO: 1
    • Product: 3
  • North America (5 members):
    • CEO: 1
    • COO: 1
    • Events: 2
    • Marketing: 1
  • Southeast Asia/India (5 members):
    • Tech: 3
    • Finance: 2

C-Suite:

CEO :

Chris Gonsalves: Prior to founding Community Gaming, Chris was an investment analyst at ConsenSys, helping shape the company’s web3 gaming investment strategy. Now, as the CEO of CG, Chris aims to advance the competitive gaming industry by creating the most efficient earnings infrastructure, facilitating automated tournaments and predictions. Chris has hosted over 200 in-person gaming events, including the recent 3XP Gaming Expo in Los Angeles that brought together the largest web3 game developers in the US.

COO :

Evany Chang: Experienced builder and operator, Evany Chang is the co-founder and COO of Community Gaming. With over a decade-long career in esports, Evany co-founded multi-championship winning teams Team Secret and OG Esports. Under her guidance, the latter secured historic esports success, winning four Major Championships over their initial two years, followed by back-to-back titles at The International. Their repeated success resulted in over 32MM in prize winnings over their first four years. Evany oversees Community Gaming’s global operations, marketing and outreach, and event related endeavors.

CTO :

Sasa Pesic: Sasa entered the blockchain space in 2016. Since then designed, architected and delivered various general-purpose, AI and Blockchain solutions spanning multiple domains (gamification, fintech, insurance, energy, cybersecurity, health). He has worked on a variety of web3 products, from P2P marketplaces, micro-lending, AI crypto trading & DeFi platforms, all the way through blockchain as a service platforms. Sasa served as a Blockchain Technology consultant for several highly regarded universities globally. His goal is to make the Community Gaming platform and products scalable, resilient, and reliable, establishing it as the ultimate Web3 esports platform with a forward-looking approach to AI integration.

Investment Thesis

With the adoption boom of prediction markets, which have seen platforms like Polymarket achieve over $9 billion in volume in 2024, and the explosive growth of esports, projected to hit $4.3 billion by 2024, Forkast is uniquely positioned to thrive at the intersection of these two dynamic industries.

Backed by its parent company, Community Gaming, which in the past two years, has onboarded more than 120,000 gamers, while hosting 50,000 tournament matches each month, Forkast benefits from the privilege of being able to tap into CG’s global audience, particularly in high-growth regions like Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America, where mobile gaming is thriving.

Leveraging CG’s deep partnerships with industry giants like Mobile Legends, PUBG, Coinbase, and Worldcoin, Forkast seamlessly introduces prediction markets to an already engaged audience.

Also, by offering gasless, seamless transactions on the Ronin chain through the use of smart contract wallets and account-abstraction, Forkast becomes easily accessible to mainstream gamers and blockchain enthusiasts alike.

Also, by adopting innovative AI-enhanced tools Forkast traders will be empowered with smarter, data-driven trading decisions, as well as many convenience features and 24/7 customer support.

Overall, prediction markets' growing popularity, coupled with Forkast’s unique focus on gaming and internet culture, creates a distinctive value proposition.

By integrating prediction markets into CG’s thriving competitive gaming ecosystem, Forkast generates a synergistic flywheel effect where tournaments and markets reinforce each other, deepening user engagement and accelerating growth.

Risk Evaluation

• Regulatory Risk: Navigating complex legal frameworks for prediction markets and cryptocurrency operations across various jurisdictions.
  • Mitigation: Forkast.gg engages legal experts to ensure compliance requirements, secures necessary licenses, and designs its platform to adapt to regulatory changes.
• Competitive Risk: Intense competition from established and emerging platforms in prediction markets and esports betting.
  • Mitigation: Forkast.gg builds on top of the significant traction that CG has, on-boarding users with gasless transactions and through strong partnerships (e.g., Coinbase, Mobile Legends), and supports both Web2 and Web3 ecosystems.
• Market Risk: Exposure to the volatility of both cryptocurrency markets and esports tournaments outcomes.
  • Mitigation: CG provides incentives to deepen the liquidity of its $CGX token and partners with professional Market Makers to dampen the volatility of the token. The price-suggesting system, instead, evaluates market conditions to recommend informed prices for traders, ensuring alignment with real-time market liquidity and trends.
• Smart Contract Risk: Potential vulnerabilities in smart contracts leading to exploits, loss of funds, or operational disruptions.
  • Mitigation: Forkast.gg utilizes the Conditional Tokens Framework (CTF) built on Gnosis's secure architecture for tokenization and collateral management. Furthermore, both Forkast and CG conduct regular audits, adhere to best practices in smart contract development, and opsec.

Links

• Forkast.gg
• Forkast Docs
• CommunityGaming.io
• Twitter (Forkast)
• Twitter (CG)
• Instagram (CG)
• LinkedIn (CG)
• Discord (CG)
• CG White Paper

Features of CG /Forkast

• Community Gaming Joins Forces with Moonton as Official Esports Partner for Mobile Legends: Bang Bang
• Team Liquid & Community Gaming announce 20K USDC Tournament Series With Coinbase For Onchain Summer 2024
• Community Gaming Integrates with World ID To Verify Esports Tournament Players
• CG Integrates with OKX Wallet For Seamless Esports Tournaments
• Community Gaming's Inaugural 3XP Web3 Gaming Expo Sets Benchmark for Future of Gaming Industry
• Ronin partnership press release

About Forkast

Forkast is a prediction market platform, built by Community Gaming, designed for gaming and internet culture. Users can create and participate in prediction markets based on trending topics in gaming, memes, streamers, breaking news, and Web3 assets.

Website | Twitter | LinkedIn | Docs

About Impossible Finance

Impossible is an on-chain native, research advisory firm with a DeFi launchpad and accelerator. We help projects kickstart, fundraise, scale and launch their tokens while enabling users to learn, discover and invest in high quality crypto opportunities.

Website | X | Discord | Telegram | Blog